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[Geofin Comtrade] Friday, February 12, 2016 Rubber Report
(Last Updated: 10 Jun 2016)

 

 

Friday, February 12, 2016 Rubber Report A Daily Report on Natural Rubber OPENING SIGNALS Commodity Last Price % Chg Nymex Crude Oil ($/bbl) 26.77 -2.48 Tokyo Commodity Exchange Rubber(Y/kg) 147.4 0.27 Agricultural Futures Exchange of Thailand Rubber(TBH/kg) - - Shanghai Futures Exchange Rubber(CNY/ton) Holiday Currency Last Price % Chg USD/INR 68.35 -0.16 USD/JPY 112.82 0.35 * Updated @09:18 am IST. RUBBER REPORT February 12, 2016 GEOFIN RESEARCH DESK | www.geofin.co.in MARKET COMMENTARY ⊳NMCE rubber futures resumed its downtrend on Thursday as persisting weak demand continued to sap overall market sentiments. In the physical market, quotes for RSS4 in the physical market steadied near Rs.91.5 a kg. In the overseas market on Friday, TOCOM exchange reopened after national holiday. The benchmark July rubber futures on the exchange was trading rather flat in the vicinity of the seven year lows. MARKET NEWS ⊳Asia's top rubber producers will implement an export quota scheme from March onwards that targets 615,000 tonnes of cuts within the first six months, a statement from the International Tripartite Rubber Council (ITRC) said. ⊳Tripura's natural rubber output is expected to increase to about 55,000 tn in the current financial year ending March, up from 40,000 tn produced in 2014-15 (Apr-Mar) according to the Rubber Board. ⊳Thai cabinet has given a green light for an Agriculture Ministry scheme for another 4.5 billion baht in aid for rubber planters by subsidising the interest on manufacturers' loans. ⊳Thai government has hinted that it may continue with its rubber subsidy programme after it expires in June, if the price slump remains unresolved. ⊳According to the Rubber Board, India’s natural rubber production declined to 58000 tonnes in December 2015 from 63000 tonnes produced during the same period in 2014 while imports rises 8.0 per cent to 37078 tonnes. ⊳Import of natural rubber will not be allowed during the period January 21 2016 to 31st March 2016 under Advance Authorisation to be issued or revalidated on or after 21st January, 2016, the Directorate general of Foreign Trade (DGFT) said in a notification.

 

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 RUBBER REPORT December 30, 2015 GEOFIN RESEARCH DESK | www.geofin.co.in MARKET COMMENTARY Natural rubber is taking a breather after the recent slide in the major overseas market. On Wednesday, TOCOM rubber futures, after four consecutive sessions of losses, bounced up from the one month lows probably on bargain buying and firm crude oil prices. However, persisting worries over demand from the top natural rubber consumer China continued to hamper the overall market sentiments. SHFE rubber futures are seen rising as well. In the Indian market, meanwhile, natural rubber firmed up. In the physical market, RSS4 rubber was quoted around Rs.102.50 a kg while on NMCE it ended marginally up, by about 0.5 per cent. MARKET NEWS ⊳Thailand’s Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives will lend another 5 billion baht to rubber farmers seeking to do extra jobs during the ongoing price slump. ⊳Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 2.4 per cent to 240189 tonnes last Friday from a week earlier. ⊳New plantings of rubber have been on a decline over the last three years and were down around 19% in 2014-15 (Apr-Mar), the Ministry of Commerce and Industry said.The total area under newly planted and replanted rubber trees was at 32,000 ha in 2014-15, down 11.1% from 36,000 ha a year ago. ⊳India’s natural rubber production in November declined 16.7 percent to 50000tonnes according to the data from the Rubber Board. Imports declined as well by 13.7 per cent to 37445 tonnes. ⊳Thailand on Tuesday approved $139 million in additional loans to help rubber farmers in the Southeast Asian country hit by weak global prices of the commodity. ⊳Following the meeting of International Rubber Tripartite Council, officials have pledged to establish a new regional rubber trading platform that could be up and running by June 2016. Also, it has asked upon to implement a scheme in 2016 that would limit rubber supplied to market. CHART (NMCE January Futures) & PIVOT LEVELS PIVOT TABLE Contract S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 Jan NMCE 10226 10266 10341 10381 10456 10496 10571 RUBBER REPORT December 30, 2015 GEOFIN RESEARCH DESK | www.geofin.co.in ARBITRAGE WINDOW Across Domestic and International Market Kottayam RSS4 Spot Price: Rs.102.50/kg Latex (drc 60%):Rs.73.45/kg SPREAD Domestic and International NR Prices VALID WAREHOUSE RECEIPTS (NMCE) -60.00 -50.00 -40.00 -30.00 -20.00 -10.00 0.00 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Spread(in Rs.) Bangkok Malaysia -22.15 -26.71 - NMCE FUTURES v/s SPOT 9000 9500 10000 10500 11000 11500 12000 12500 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 NMCE SPOT PVO ANALYSIS (NMCE Jan) 9700 9800 9900 10000 10100 10200 10300 10400 10500 10600 10700 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Nov-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Dec-15 Dec-15 Dec-15 Dec-15 Dec-15 Dec-15 Dec-15 Dec-15 Dec-15 Price Volume & OI Date Vol OI Close INTERNATIONAL RUBBER PRICES (in Rs.) Orgin Close (Rs/kg) Chg Bangkok(RSS3) Spot 80.35 -1.50 Malaysia(SMR20) Spot 75.79 0.56 AFET(RSS3)Aug16 86.54 -- Tocom(RSS3)Jun16 86.56 -1.65 Shanghai(RSS3) May16 106.81 -0.35 NMCE RUBBER FUTURES Contract Open High Low Last % Chg Vol ^ Vol OI ^OI Jan-16 10348 10420 10305 10417 0.52 346 60 951 -20 Feb-16 10550 10639 10550 10627 0.53 256 68 594 44 Mar-16 10700 10850 10700 10846 0.86 96 72 103 22 Apr-16 - - - - - - - - - 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Valid WH Receipts Date SPREAD Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 Spot -167 -377 -596 - Jan-16 0 -210 -429 - Feb-16 0 -219 - Mar-16 0 - Apr-16 - RUBBER REPORT December 30, 2015 GEOFIN RESEARCH DESK | www.geofin.co.in WEATHER HOLIDAY CALENDAR Month Date Exchange/Country Occation/Event DECEMBER 7 THAILAND H.M. King's Birthday 10 THAILAND Constitution Day 23 TOCOM Emperor's Birthday 24 NMCE,MALAYSIA, INDONEISA Id-E-Milad/National Leave 25 NMCE Christmas 31 TOCOM, THAILAND, INDONESIA New Year Eve Daily Weather: Kerala SUMMARY: Northeast monsoon has been weak over Kerala. Rain occurred at isolated places in Kerala. No rain occurred in Lakshadweep. Minimum temperature fell in Kannur, Malappuram & Kozhikode districts, was above normal in Kollam district and changed little in the remaining districts. CIAL Kochi & Karipur AP recorded the lowest minimum temperature of 220C. WEATHER FORECAST FOR NEXT FIVE DAYS: DAY 1 (29TH December 2015): Dry weather will prevail over Kerala & Lakshadweep. DAY 2 (30TH December 2015): Dry weather will prevail over Kerala & Lakshadweep. DAY 3 (31ST December 2015): Dry weather will prevail over Kerala & Lakshadweep. DAY 4 (1ST January 2016): Dry weather will prevail over Kerala & Lakshadweep. DAY 5 (2ND January 2016): Dry weather will prevail over Kerala & Lakshadweep. WEATHER WARNING FOR 5 DAYS: DAY 1 (29TH December 2015): No weather warning. DAY 2 (30TH December 2015): No weather warning. DAY 3 (31ST December 2015): No weather warning. DAY 4 (1ST January 2016): No weather warning. DAY 5 (2ND January 2016): No weather warning. WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SUBSEQUENT 2 DAYS# FROM 0830 HOURS IST OF 03/01/2016 TO 0830 HOURS IST OF 05/01/2016: No significant change. (Source: IMD)

 

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Rubber Report

A Daily Report on Natural Rubber

OPENING SIGNALS

Commodity Last Price % Chg Nymex Crude Oil ($/bbl) 40.96 0.52 Tokyo Commodity Exchange Rubber(Y/kg) 157.00 -0.32 Agricultural Futures Exchange of Thailand Rubber(TBH/kg) - - Shanghai Futures Exchange Rubber(CNY/ton) 10240 -2.15 Currency Last Price % Chg USD/INR 66.0700 0.07 USD/JPY 123.11 -0.40 * Updated @9:16 am IST. RUBBER REPORT November 19, 2015 GEOFIN RESEARCH DESK | www.geofin.co.in

MARKET COMMENTARY

TOCOM rubber futures are seen trading in thin ranges in the vicinity of the six year low hit earlier this month. On Thursday, the benchmark April rubber futures were held in tight ranges with a negative bias while SHFE rubber futures lost nearly two per cent on persisting worries over China demand and slump in other industrial commodities. In the Indian market, natural rubber stayed on the bear turf, hitting a fresh six year low. RSS4 in the physical market slipped to Rs.108.50 a kg in lackluster trades last day. Low demand and bearishness in the overseas market weighed heavily on prices despite fall in production.

MARKET NEWS

⊳India government imposed anti-dumping duty on import of certain grades of carbon black from China and Russia for a period of five years. ⊳Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam have agreed to harmonise their rubber standards with effect from Jan 1 according to RusdanDalimunthe, executive director at the Indonesia Rubber Association or GAPKINDO. ⊳Crude rubber inventories at Japanese ports stood at 11,070 tonnes as of Oct. 31, down 3.6 percent from the last inventory date, data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan showed ⊳India’s natural rubber output in October declined 10.9 per cent on YoY basis to 49000 tonnes according to the Rubber Board. Imports declined as well by 11.6 per cent to 37691 tonnes while consumption increased 4.9 per cent during the same period. ⊳Rubber inventories in the warehoused monitored by SHFE rose 0.8 per cent to 228612 tonnes according to weekly data from the exchange.  

IMD) WEATHER HOLIDAY CALENDAR

  Daily Weather: Kerala (Source: IMD) SUMMARY: Rain occurred at a few places in Kerala and at isolated places in Lakshadweep. The chief amounts of rainfall reports in cm are: Alappuzha 5, Mannarkad (Palakkad district), Perumbavur&Piravom (both in Ernakulam district), Cherthala&Kayamkulam (both in Alappuzha district),Munnar&Peermade (both in Idukki district)3 each, Kayamkulam_AgriMancompu (both in Alappuzha district) 2 each and CIAL Kochi (Ernakulam district) &Ernakulam south, Haripad&Mavelikkara (both in Alappuzha district), Aryankavu (Kollam district),Ottappalam (Palakkad district),&Neyyattinkara (Thiruvananthapuram district) 1 each. Minimum temperature changed little over Kerala and was above normal in Palakkad district. CIAL Kochi and Punalur recorded the lowest minimum temperature of 230C

WEATHER FORECAST FOR NEXT FIVE DAYS: DAY 1 (18th November): Rain or thundershower will occur at many places in Kerala and a few places in Lakshadweep. DAY 2 (19th November): Rain or thundershower will occur at many places in Kerala and a few places in Lakshadweep DAY 3 (20th November): Rain or thundershower will occur at a few places in Kerala and Lakshadweep. DAY 4 (21st November): Rain or thundershower will occur at a few places in Kerala and Lakshadweep. DAY 5 (22nd November): Rain or thundershower will occur at a few places in Kerala and Lakshadweep.

WEATHER WARNING FOR 5 DAYS: DAY 1 (18th November): No weather warning. DAY 2 (19th November): No weather warning. DAY 3 (20th November): No weather warning. DAY 4 (21st November): No weather warning. DAY 5 (22nd November): No weather warning. WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SUBSEQUENT 2 DAYS# FROM 0830 HOURS IST OF 23/11/2015 TO 0830 HOURS IST OF 25/11/2015: No significant change.

 

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RUBBER REPORT
October 1, 2015
GEOFIN RESEARCH DESK |
www.geofin.co.in
MARKET COMMENTARY
TOCOM rubber futures jumped over three per cent on Thursday probably taking positive cues from equities, crude
oil and other industrial metals. Expectations of additional stimulus following weak manufacturing PMI data from
China may have sup
ported the sentiments as well. In the meantime, SHFE is closed for a week long holiday from
01 October to 07 October on account of National Day.
Natural rubber in the local market
ended rather fl
at on Wednesday in lacklusture trades. RSS4 in the
physical
m
arket was qu
oted
steady
around
Rs.112.50 a kg
while NMCE rubber fut
ures ended about 0.5 per ce
nt up.
MARKET NEWS
Crude rubber inventories at Japanese ports stood at 12,555 tonnes as of Sept. 10, down 5.3 percent from the
last inventory date, data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan showed on Thursday.
Inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 0.7 p
er cent from last Friday to 206259 tonnes.
Rubber Board has backed a proposal to permit 100 per cent FDI in the plantation sector.
Kerala government has modified some terms of subsidy scheme for rubber farmers. The government dropped
Aadhaar as mandato
ry requirement for registration while extending the scheme to latex as well from next month.
Farmers will receive the difference between Rs.142 and the price of latex as fixed by the Rubber Board.
The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries
Assembly has discussed several options to strengthen
rubber prices, including the creation of a common trading platform, according to Sheela Thomas, ANRPC’s
Secretary
-
General.
China’s January
-
August rubber imports down 4.4 per cent to 1.66 million tonne
s.
Vietnam exported 118,560 mt of natural rubber in August, edging up 5.75% year on year and rising 12.4% from
July, data released Wedn
esday by Vietnam Customs showed.
Crude rubber inventories at Japanese ports stood at 13256 tonnes
as of Aug 31, down 0.6 per cent from that on
Aug 20, data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan showed.
India’s natural rubber imports slumped 32 per cent on YoY basis to 33292 tonnes in August according to the
Rubber Board. Consumption as wel
l as production rose to 87500 and 55000 tonnes respectively during the same
period.
Malaysia to raise Rubber Production Incentive to RM5.10 from RM4.60 per kg for SMR 20 FOB according to the
country’s Minister of Plantation Industries and Commodity.
S
almiah Ahmed has been appointed as the new CEO of International Rubber Consortium, the operational arm of
the International Tripartite Rubber Council.

 --------------------------------

RUBBER REPORT
September 29, 2015
GEOFIN RESEA
RCH DESK |
www.geofin.co.in
MARKET COMMENTARY
On Tuesday, natural rubber in the overseas market slumped over three per
cent. Plunge in China and Japanese
equities amidst lingering worries over demand from the top consumer China dragged down natural rubber prices
on TOCOM as well as SHFE exchange to its weakest level in more than two weeks. In the meantime, the
commodity t
raded rather flat in the local market on Monday. While the broad trend stayed weak, RSS4 is
probably
on a consolidation mode. Jaded demand and weak cues from the overseas market weighed on while
limited supplies to the market lend lower level support.
MARKET NEWS
Plantation workers in Kerala including tea, rubber, coffee and cardamom have started indefinite strike
demanding wage hike.
Rubber Board has backed a proposal to permit 100 per cent FDI in the
plantation sector.
Kerala government has modified some terms of subsidy scheme for rubber farmers. The government dropped
Aadhaar as mandatory requirement for registration while extending the scheme to latex as well from next month.
Farmers will receive t
he difference between Rs.142 and the price of latex as fixed by the Rubber Board.
The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries Assembly has discussed several options to strengthen
rubber prices, including the creation of a common trading plat
form, according to Sheela Thomas, ANRPC’s
Secretary
-
General.
China’s January
-
August rubber imports down 4.4 per cent to 1.66 million tonnes.
Vietnam exported 118,560 mt
of natural rubber in August, edging up 5.75% year on year and rising 12.4% from
July, data released Wedn
esday by Vietnam Customs showed.
Crude rubber inventories at Japanese ports stood at 13256 tonnes as of Aug 31, down 0.6 per cent from that on
Aug 2
0, data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan showed.
India’s natural rubber imports slumped 32 per cent on YoY basis to 33292 tonnes in August according to the
Rubber Board. Consumption as well as production rose to 87500 and 55000 tonnes resp
ectively during the same
period.
Malaysia to raise Rubber Production Incentive to RM5.10 from RM4.60 per kg for SMR 20 FOB according to the
country’s Minister of Plantation Industries and Commodity.
Salmiah Ahmed has been appointed as the new CEO of I
nternational Rubber Consortium, the operational arm of
the International Tripartite Rubber Council.

 

 

 =====================

RUBBER REPORT
September 24, 2015
GEOFIN RESEARCH DESK |
www.geofin.co.in
MARKET COMMENTARY
TOCOM rubber futures slumped more than three per cent, as the exchange r
eopens after consecutive holidays
today, on persisting worries over China economy. Concerns over demand intensified following weak factory
activity data. In the meantime, SHFE rubber futures were seen trimming initial gains in thin trades.
On Wednesday, n
atural rubber in the local market dipped in lackluster trades. In the physical market, quotes for
RSS4 declined to Rs.112 a kg on jaded demand and weak cues from the overseas market.
MARKET NEWS
Kerala government has modified some terms of subsidy scheme for rubber farmers. The government dropped
Aadhaar as mandatory requirement for registration while extending the scheme to latex as well from next month.
Farmers will receive the difference betwee
n Rs.142 and the price of latex as fixed by the Rubber Board.
The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries Assembly has discussed several options to strengthen
rubber prices, including the creation of a common trading platform, according to
Sheela Thomas, ANRPC’s
Secretary
-
General.
China’s January
-
August rubber imports down 4.4 per cent to 1.66 million tonnes.
Vietnam exported 118,560 mt of natural rubber in August, edging up 5.75% year on year and rising 12.4% from
July, data released Wed
n
esday by Vietnam Customs showed.
Crude rubber inventories at Japanese ports stood at 13256 tonnes as of Aug 31, down 0.6 per cent from that on
Aug 20, data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan showed.
India’s natural rubber imports slumped 32 per cent on YoY basis to 33292 tonnes in August according to the
Rubber Board. Consumption as well as production rose to 87500 and 55000 tonnes respectively during the same
period.
Malaysia to raise Rubber Prod
uction Incentive to RM5.10 from RM4.60 per kg for SMR 20 FOB according to the
country’s Minister of Plantation Industries and Commodity.
Salmiah Ahmed has been appointed as the new CEO of International Rubber Consortium, the operational arm of
the Interna
tional Tripartite Rubber Council.
India
s
Minister for Steel and Mines has expressed concerns over problems faced by the local rubber and steel
industry due to “dumping” by countries that it has free trade agreements with and said that the matter is in
c
onsultation with ministries of finance and commerce as well as the prime minister to reconsider these
agreements and rising further anti
-
dumping duties

-----------------------

RUBBER REPORT
September 23, 2015
GEOFIN RESEARCH DESK |
www.geofin.co.in
MARKET COMMENTARY
Natural rubber continues to trade in thin ranges with a negative bias in the local market. On Tuesday, quotes for
RSS4 in the physical market stayed near Rs.112.50 a kg, while in the futures segment, it ticked lower. Lack of
cues from the major TOCOM rubbe
r futures amidst lackluster demand and thin supplies kept the commodity price
in tight range.
TOCOM exchange will reopen on Thursday, 24 September after three day holiday.
MARKET NEWS
The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries Assembly has discussed several options to strengthen
rubber prices, including the creation of a common trading platform, according to Sheela Thomas, ANRPC’s
Secretary
-
General.
China’s January
-
August rubber imports down 4.4 per cent to 1.66 million tonnes.
Vietnam exported 118,560 mt of natural rubber in August, edging up 5.75% year on year and rising 12.4% from
July, data released Wedn
esday by Vietnam Customs showed.
Crude r
ubber inventories at Japanese ports stood at 13256 tonnes as of Aug 31, down 0.6 per cent from that on
Aug 20, data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan showed.
India’s natural rubber imports slumped 32 per cent on YoY basis to 33292 tonnes
in August according to the
Rubber Board. Consumption as well as production rose to 87500 and 55000 tonnes respectively during the same
period.
Malaysia to raise Rubber Production Incentive to RM5.10 from RM4.60 per kg for SMR 20 FOB according to the
c
ountry’s Minister of Plantation Industries and Commodity.
Salmiah Ahmed has been appointed as the new CEO of International Rubber Consortium, the operational arm of
the International Tripartite Rubber Council.
All India Rubber Industries Association has
called for formation of an exclusive export promotion council for
rubber products.
India
s
Minister for Steel and Mines has expressed concerns over problems faced by the local rubber and steel
industry due to “dumping” by countries that it has free tra
de agreements with and said that the matter is in
consultation with ministries of finance and commerce as well as the prime minister to reconsider these
agreements and rising further anti
-
dumping duties

 

 

--------------------------------

 RUBBER REPORT

September 15, 2015
GEOFIN RESEARCH DESK |
www.geofin.co.in
MARKET COMMENTARY
Natural rubber in the major overseas market is seen declining for the se
cond consecutive day. TOCOM as well as
SHFE rubber futures were in red on Tuesday on persisting worries over China economic growth amidst uncertainty
on US Federal Reserve
s policy normalization. In the Indian market, meanwhile, on Monday, sentiments were
muddled. Despite weakness witnessed in the international market, thin arrivals provided firm support to the
commodity in the physical market. However, in the futures segment, indecisive moves were seen even as it
managed to culminate the session in green.
MARKET NEWS
Crude rubber inventories at Japanese ports stood at 13256 tonnes as of Aug 31, down 0.6 per cent from that on
Aug 20, data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan showed.
India’s natural rubber imports slumped 32 per cent on YoY basis to 33292 tonnes in August according to the
Rubber Board. Consumption as well as production rose to 87500 and 55000 tonnes respectively during the same
period.
Malaysia to raise Rubber
Production Incentive to RM5.10 from RM4.60 per kg for SMR 20 FOB according to the
country’s Minister of Plantation Industries and Commodity.
Salmiah Ahmed has been appointed as the new CEO of International Rubber Consortium, the operational arm of
the Int
ernational Tripartite Rubber Council.