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ANRPC : Natural rubber market struggles
(Last Updated: 26 Oct 2017)

 

 

Natural rubber market struggles

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The natural  is anticipated to continue struggling due to plunging prices, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries ().

 

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A worker of Cu Mgar Rubber Company harvests latex.

At its 10th annual meeting in HCM City on Monday, ARNPC said the global natural rubber market has been facing difficulties since 2012 when prices started to dip, affecting the lives of more than six million rubber growers.

The decline in prices was attributed to the imbalance in supply and demand, which originated from a typical cultivation cycle of perennial plants and weakening global industrial production.

Since the end of 2016, natural  have recovered slightly but continue to lack stability, the association said.

According to A.Ajith Kumar, ANRPC’s president, rubber prices will continue to hover at low .

He said solutions to support rubber growers were just temporary to overcome the period of low prices.

Tran Ngoc Thuan, president of the Viet Nam Rubber Association, said to cope with the period of low prices, which could prolong for several coming years, Viet Nam was striving to improve output and land use efficiency, cut costs and enhance quality, along with developing the rubber processing industry.

In addition, promoting the use of  was also important, Thuan said.

Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Ha Cong Tuan said the Government of Viet Nam had increased domestic consumption of rubber from 18 per cent to more than 30 per cent and developed rubber processing to support the industry towards sustainable development.

There were more than 13.5 million hectares of rubber in the world, of which the 12 member countries of ANRPC accounted for 90 per cent.

The global demand for rubber was forecast to increase by 1.2 per cent to reach 12.38 million tonnes this year, while the global supply would be some 12.88 million tonnes.

Thailand, Malaysia,  and Viet Nam are the world’s largest rubber producers with total output making up for nearly 80 per cent of the global output.

Statistics of the General Department of Customs showed that in the first nine months of this year, Viet Nam’s rubber exports reached more than 955,680 tonnes, worth $1.6 billion, representing increases of 10.6 per cent in volume and 49.2 per cent in value over the same period last year.

The country also spent $802.3 million in importing more than 392,455 tonnes of rubber in the nine-month period.

A report by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development showed that in 2017, Viet Nam’s rubber output rose by 3.9 per cent.

Rubber latex was at some VND12,500 per kilo in September. — VNS

 

 

 

ANRPC: The Demand Increased Slightly, and the Supply Shortages Will Be Narrowed

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 According to the statistics released by Association of  Producing Countries (), the demand volume for  worldwide (including non-ANRPC countries) reached 7,486kt in the first 7 months of 2017, up 0.40% from the same period last year. The consumption volume was 6,838kt in the first 7 months. The supply shortage was 648kt. was predicted that the  supply shortage would drop to 517kt in August.

In the first 10 months, the NR consumption volume will reach 10,723kt, up 1.10% from the same period in 2016. The consumption volume in entire 2017 will be 12,833kt, up 1.20% from the 12,600kt in 2016.

Nguyen Ngoc Bich, Chairman of ANRPC, said that NR spot prices would not decrease because of the favorable short supply. The NR price rebounded gradually in the first 3 weeks of July, followed by the price recover of crude oil. The price spread between STR 20 and SMR 20 narrowed. However, the NR inventories increased in the futures market in the last week of July, and the NR prices were influenced. The NR prices slumped in the major spot markets in  and Malaysia.

In order to promote the use of NR, Thai government encouraged all industries in Thailand to use NR. Some departments and government divisions were suggested to consume NR. After that, the NR consumption volume in Thailand increased from 362kt to 390kt, up 7.70%. Office of Thai Prime Minister announced that 9 government divisions would purchase NR for road construction and product manufacturing with a budget of 16,900,000 . It may stimulate the demand for NR in Thailand.

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Natural Rubber alternatives ‘not any time soon’

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 Washington –  Alternative sources of natural rubber sources, such as guayule and Kok-saghyz dandelions, will be important, but not for the next several years, according to the consensus of experts in this area.cheap replica watches

“Alternative NR sources such as guayule and Russian dandelion are not probably going to affect demand and supply for Hevea very soon,” Nguyen Ngoc Bich, secretary general of the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries () believes.

“It is good news that we will have reserves of NR for the future beside that from Hevea,” he said. “Nevertheless, research and development may still be ahead to enable the sustainable production as well as the economic viability of NR from those plants.”

The  obtains at least 90% of its NR from , so sources from other areas are extremely desirable, according to the anonymous source. But it will be five to 10 years minimum before guayule, dandelions and other alternative NR sources make an impact in the market.

  

“We’re looking at all sorts of investments,” the source said. “But dandelion growers are telling me they can do really well only when Hevea rubber is at $5 or $6 a kilo, and currently it’s $1.50.”

Taraxagum, the dandelion rubber Conti is developing, should enter commercial production in the next five to 10 years and then flow step by step into Conti’s rubber products, according to the company.

Conti launched its first winter test tire with an all-dandelion tread in 2014, but doesn’t see Taraxagum completely replacing Hevea even in the next few decades, the company said.

“It will be a stepwise development, as we still have a long way to go to industrialize dandelions,” it said. “After that start, over years we might get to 10% being sourced from dandelion rubber.”

Katrina Cornish, endowed chair and Ohio Research Scholar, Bioemergent Materials at Ohio State University, reckons that both sources are still some time away from commercialization, especially on commodity markets.

“It is very important, in my opinion, to focus both on premium niche markets and to fully valorize their co-product streams,” said Cornish, an expert on the agronomy and development of both guayule and dandelions.

“This is much easier, at the moment, for guayule latex/bio-oil than for rubber dandelion/inulin,” she noted. “Guayule is ready to go from the agronomy point of view, but dandelion cannot greatly expand until the agronomy is further developed.”

For his part, Michael Fraley,  of Casa Grande, Arizona-based guayule rubber development firm PanAridus LLC, predicted that guayule will be a factor in the NR market in eight to 10 years.

“If the different stakeholders started pulling together today, he said, there could be guayule  on the market in four or five years. But first the funding would have to be there, he said.

“We no longer need to research—we need to fund production,” added Farley. “But a lot of tire manufacturers are still on the sidelines.”

Fraley said he hopes that someday guayule will have 15 to 20% of the NR market share, which would mean 80,000 to 100,000 acres of guayule under cultivation. With the problems currently facing Hevea, it can’t happen soon enough, he said.

“Leaf blight is on the list as a chemical weapon,” he said.

 

 

ANRPC scales down world natural rubber supply in 2017

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 KOCHI: The Association of  Producing Countries (ANRPC), has scaled down its earlier forecast of world supply of  (NR) as  reckons that prevailing downtrend in the market is likely to pull down production further.

ANRPC scales down world natural rubber supply in 2017The supply is likely to be revised down further due to downswing in NR prices from the last week of May.

In its latest report, ANRPC has stated that the world supply of NR is expected to be 12.756 million tonnes in 2017, slightly lower than 12.771 million tonnes anticipated a month ago. The total global supply during January-March 2017 was short by nearly 6 lakh tonnes and it is anticipated to widen to 7 lakh tonnes by the end of June, the report said.hublot replica watches

The supply is likely to be revised down further due to downswing in NR prices from the last week of May. The farmers may reduce the frequency of harvesting and delay reopening of tapping on the expiry of wintering-off season, the report said. The anticipated faster growth in supply in Cambodia (35.3%) and India (20.2%) are because of expected expansion of the area to be tapped during the year. ANRPC has pegged the Indian production of NR in 2017 at 7.50 lakh tonnes.

 

Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Bich, secretary general of ANRPC said in the May report of the association that physical prices of NR are increasingly being dominated by sentiments in Shanghai and  (Tocom) futures which are vulnerable to fluctuations in currencies, crude  prices and geo-political developments.

The prevailing bearing trends in NR prices are due to unexpected fall in  and sharp appreciation of Chinese Yuan and Japanese yen. Speculative investors’ expectation of an upward revision in US policy interest rates in June stands as major constraint for recovery in Asian commoditiesincluding NR, the report pointed out.

 

Press Release by ANRPC : Anticipated World Supply and Demand for Natural Rubber during 2017

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Press Release

Subject: Anticipated World Supply and Demand for Natural  During 2017

The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) from  2017 onwards reports statistics and forecasts of supply and demand for natural rubber covering the entire world. This is a marked improvement from the earlier practice of reporting figures confining to its member countries only. ANRPC on May 12, 2017, released the improved version of its monthly “Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics” by giving the world supply and demand which include non-ANRPC countries as well.

Based on preliminary estimates, world supply during the  ended April 2017 was 466,000 tonnes short of demand. As shown in the following table, the shortfall in world supply is anticipated to widen to 688,000 tonnes by the end of  2017 before narrowing down to 504,000 tonnes by September 2017 and 46,000 tonnes by end of the year.

Anticipated Shortfall in World Supply of Natural Rubber during 2017

Period  World Supply
(‘000 tonnes) 
World Demand
(‘000 tonnes) 
Short fall in Supply
(‘000 tonnes) 
 January to April 2017  3,714  4,180  466
 January to June 2017  5,701  6,389  688
 January to September 2017  9,143  9,647  504
 January to December 2017  12,771  12,817  46

Data and forecasts reported by ANRPC through its monthly “Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics” until March 2017 covered its 11 member countries only. They covered only 90% of the world supply and 65% of the world demand.  ANRPC noticed that some among the media had wrongly reported the figures as aggregate for the whole world and even worked out global surplus based on those figures, giving misleading information and causing confusion among market players.  To guard against this issue, and on consideration of requests from players in the market, it has been decided to make the figures comprehensive of the whole world by incorporating non-ANRPC countries from April 2017 onwards.

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