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(Last Updated: 18 May 2020)


Floods in Thailand and Chinese Consuming upsurge markets in Brazil
Singapore started this year at full heat! The TSR-20 surged as much as 5% on
the first 10 days of 2017 reaching USD 2,12.
Floods at Thailand and positive import data coming from China were among the
main influences
In November of 2016 Natural Rubber imports had a 42.8% hike compared to
2015 according to the Chinese government.
The first weekend of 2017 also stunned the world after 21 deaths were
confirmed by the government of Thailand, world biggest NR producer, during
what was considered one of the worse floods of the past 10 years. Near 330
thousand families were put out of their homes and rubber production came to a
Responsible for 37% of all world production the impact of this tragedy may also   short the country´s production in 360 thousand tones, almost 2 times the
Brazilian annual production. That tend to continue to impact world prices.
Regarding Oil Markets, prices continue to be appreciated over the USD 50,00 a
barrel. None of the less, important to underscore that this uptrend is dependent
on the success of the OPEC supply constrain agreement together with hopes
that the american Shale Gas wont create too much of a competition. Those are
certainly important factors to be monitored.
Although the dollar exchange rate in Brazil has come down at R$3,20 there are
good chances of quotes picking up on the medium term with interest rates going
down in Brazil and up at the US.
As a result the GEB-10 reference is projected to come to R$7,26 for the months
of Feb/Mar and farm-gate prices for cup lump should reach about R$3,05.
About Brazilian Imports of NR,replica omega 2016 confirmed a recovery over 2015 but is still
down from 2013 e 2014.
This reaction is inline with the national GDP variation that is projected to also
perform better than 2015.
Diogo Esperante




31/10/2016 19h47
São Paulo Brasil
The international markets maintained the sentiment established during the
first 15 days of October. It is noteworthy though that a resistance level was
clearly defined. On Singapore de TSR20
showed resistance over USD1,50
closing this week trading just at USD1,49/kg level.
We belive that means that although the market has priced the reckoning
that there is a bigger pressure of demand over supply, the general
expectation is that this might be a marginal and limited movement. That is
mainly because of the immediate impact this price surge will have on
stimulating supply. Also important to underline that such stimulus, even
though marginal, should be enough according to market sentiments to limit
gains on the commodity prices. To that regard, the amount of new areas to
begin tapping over the next years still projects a supply surplus (according
to ANRPC figures) until 2021.
The Brazilian price reference (GEB10
SP) should gain about 10% for the
next couple of months, even if the Dollar Exchange Rate maintains its
With an average price of USD1,46/kg on Singapore and a USD/BRL
exchange rate at R$3,18, GEB10
SP reference might be heading to a
R$5,31/kg level with cuplump
prices at a R$2,10 average per kilogram.
This reference will be valid for December and January of 2017 according to
the industries own projections.
It is important to highlight though that recently the Brazilian government
has established a rise on Rubber import taxes from 4% to 14%. That surge

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is expected to impact on the domestic negotiations come next January and
might be a gamechanger
for the planters. The industry awaits anxiously.
Diogo Esperante
Project Manager postgraduated
USP (University of São Paulo) have been active on the
Natural Rubber Industry for the last 10 years. Business Analyst for the Hevea Forte Farmers
Association ( is a privet consultant on Risk Management and rubber planter at
Northwest São Paulo and on the South of Minas Gerais State in Brazil.


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